I am writing this blog not to speculate about what the future holds, but to propose what its supporters should do. Will everyone agree with me immediately? I very much doubt it. Indeed I don’t think I’ll be able to do more than reveal the tip of the iceberg of what I think TUSC should be doing. Until I’ve set out my stall I anticipate lots of criticisms from a variety of positions, from TUSC supporters and socialists belonging to different parties and none. I’ll be happy to answer questions from interested parties/individuals and weigh up the merits of constructive criticism. I’ll take on board all such criticisms I deem valuable and if I don’t agree will try to explain myself better. Either way, let’s keep debate civil. Let’s rely on verifiable facts and logic. Let’s try to persuade the maximum numbers of socialists to unite. And I think the way to do that is for every socialist in the UK to join TUSC, and for all small left wing organizations to affiliate to TUSC rather than to stand under a variety of different banners. Those who disagree are more than welcome to leave a comment explaining why they disagree.
This blog post can only be the first part of a series of such posts. Since May’s local elections I have tweeted virtually non stop offering suggestions about the way forward for the left. I’ve had a few RTs and Likes, but it’s obvious only a tiny percentage of socialists know what I think and of those who do many have been vocal in taking me to task over some points. That’s fine. I’ve tried to respond to criticisms with respect but in the case of one individual who is not a fan of TUSC, I had to mute the comrade since I was subject to a constant stream of abuse. That’s not the way for socialists to unite. By all means let’s be free to make our case, but persuasion requires respect and listening to each other, not putting words into each other’s mouths. That’s sectarianism which cripples the left.
My ambition for TUSC is higher than anyone else I know. Others may share my optimism but if they do I’ve yet to locate them on Twitter or anywhere else. What do I expect? Firstly, the big test for us comes in 18 months time. This gives socialists plenty of time to prepare. What we achieve depends on many factors, some within our control but others beyond it. If we don’t put a foot wrong then I see no reason why it’s impossible for TUSC to capture a 20% share of the vote. I know many will dismiss this as pie in the sky but let’s weigh up the pros and cons.
Firstly, if TUSC makes many mistakes then 20% of the vote will be ruled out. Secondly, even if we get everything right that still doesn’t mean that due to factors beyond our control our share could be significantly less than this. However, I don’t think we should get less than a 10% share if we mop up the resources waiting for us in terms of 100,000s of Jeremy Corbyn activists currently in exile from Keir Starmer’s party. They should be ours but they won’t work for, or even vote for, TUSC if we respond to them in a sectarian manner. We need to convince them we want them as members, activists, as democratically elected candidates and democratically elected officials. We want good people to represent us on radio and television. We want them all to participate in drawing up an election manifesto. We want them to carry TUSC banners on marches, pickets, and to cheer our speakers at mass rallies which should be live-streamed on the internet. All of this is possible provided we reach out to these people. If we assume they can’t be won round then they’ll either vote tactically for capitalist parties who will screw all of us or else they’ll not bother to vote, condemning TUSC to unnecessarily lost deposits. The choice is ours.
While I expect between 10% and 20% of the vote provided TUSC gets everything right, that still condemns us, under first-past-the-post to a few handfuls of MPs, if we’re lucky; can’t even be ruled out that we’d not get any MP elected. However, key for socialists has to be share of the vote, not the size of our parliamentary contingent.
How can TUSC get 10% of the vote, never mind 20% if we go into the general election admitting such a vote could lead to few if any MPs being elected? This isn’t an easy argument to make, but it’s possible. There are those who’d rather abstain than vote for Keir Starmer’s Tories or Rishi Sunak’s or Ed Davies or Nigel Farage’s. A significant section of those want to register rejection of all of the above by going to the polling booth to spoil their ballot papers. I predict a healthy percentage of such people will happily offer TUSC a protest vote to wipe the smile of all the capitalist parties, including Keir Starmer’s, maybe even intent on damaging him more than any of the others. Would such an approach help the Tories? No. Not in my opinion although obviously that’s what Starmer and co will accuse us of.
Rishi Sunak’s party faces extinction at the next general election, not because of what Keir Starmer’s done but in spite of that. Starmer’s done nothing to incentivize Labour voters to cast a vote for him; on the contrary, by pitching his tent deeper and deeper into true Blue Tory territory he’s alienated his party’s core vote. Those voters are up for grabs. If TUSC wants them, they’re ours. But we won’t get them if we express indifference to them or if TUSC poses as just one of a large number of ‘left’ alternatives.
PAL parties must be spoken to and each encouraged to affiliate to TUSC. When PAL was initiated I expected every party to present the electorate with a single banner come polling day. Maybe I didn’t read the small print. While I got plenty of retweets including the #PAL hashtag during its first outing in a parliamentary by election, not even members of PAL parties used that hashtag as far as I’m aware. This led to a great candidate ending up with 3% of the vote with PAL’s second by-election leading to a mere 0.3% of the vote, coming 14th out of 15 candidates. No lessons had been learned. By May’s local elections still no lessons had been learned. Socialists can’t win when we present a cacophony of of names, messages, visions, policies. If we can’t unite ourselves, our potential voters don’t see why we should unite them. By every left group affiliating to TUSC this problem vanishes overnight. Anyone spotting a flaw in my reasoning is welcome to leave a critical comment explaining what I’m missing. I look forward to constructive debate.
And no, this isn’t all I have to say. This is just part one in what I expect will be a long series of blog posts on my vision for the future of TUSC.
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